Fire OblationTier 1
at Massachusetts PTM Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suzaku | 7.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.3% | -16.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.3% | -2.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.4% | -6.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.0% | -4.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.5% | -10.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.4% | -20.1 |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Fire Genbu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Water Astra Diana | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Water Genbu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.9 |
| Water Umbra Alice | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Alice | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Oblation decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 23 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rictus Tiding | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Reflected Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Abnegation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |